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127 posts on "Macroecon"

August 19, 2016

Historical Echoes: That’s Where the Celebrity Advertising Was, or the Gentleman Bank Robber



LSE_http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2016/08/historical-echoes-thats-where-the-celebrity-advertising-was-or-the-gentleman-bank-robber.html

In 1970, New Britain Bank and Trust (inactive as of 1984) ran a television advertisement that starred a real-life bank robber touting a safety feature of its new “face card.” (A History Channel video includes interesting preliminaries about how the journalists obtained the ad; the ad itself starts at 5:44.) Why would this bank be willing to create such an ad? Of course, neither this bank, nor any other bank, nor any Federal Reserve Bank would condone the act of robbing a bank. But this particular thief, the notorious Willie Sutton (1901-80), was different from typical bank robbers. Let’s consider why:

Continue reading "Historical Echoes: That’s Where the Celebrity Advertising Was, or the Gentleman Bank Robber" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Historical Echoes, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (1)

August 15, 2016

What Drives Forecaster Disagreement about Monetary Policy?



LSE_What Drives Forecaster Disagreement about Monetary Policy?

What can disagreement teach us about how private forecasters perceive the conduct of monetary policy? In a previous post, we showed that private forecasters disagree about both the short-term and the long-term evolution of key macroeconomic variables but that the shape of this disagreement differs across variables. In contrast to their views on other macroeconomic variables, private forecasters disagree substantially about the level of the federal funds rate that will prevail in the medium to long term but very little on the rate at shorter horizons. In this post, we explore the possible explanations for what drives forecasts of the federal funds rate, especially in the longer run.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (1)

August 03, 2016

The Reluctance of Firms to Interview the Long-Term Unemployed



LSE_The Reluctance of Firms to Interview the Long-Term Unemployed

Estimates from the Current Population Survey show that the probability of finding a job declines the longer one is unemployed. Is this due to a loss of skills from being unemployed, employer discrimination against the long-term unemployed, or are there characteristics of workers in this segment of the workforce that lower their probability of finding a job? Studies that send out fictitious resumes find that employers do consider the length of unemployment in deciding whom to interview. Our recent work examines how such employer screening based on unemployment duration ultimately affects job-finding rates and long-term unemployment.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Labor Economics, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

June 27, 2016

Hey, Economist! How Is the Research and Statistics Group Changing?



LSE_Hey, Economist! How Is the Research and Statistics Group Changing?

As Director of Research for the New York Fed for the past seven years, Jamie McAndrews has been responsible for the Bank’s financial and economic policy research, as well as the collection of data and statistics from financial institutions. On the eve of his retirement on June 30, Jamie shared his perspective on how the Research and Statistics Group has changed with Andrew Haughwout, a senior vice president in the Group.

Continue reading "Hey, Economist! How Is the Research and Statistics Group Changing?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (1)

June 24, 2016

Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region



LSE_Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region

The May Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEIs) for New Jersey, New York State, and New York City, released today, show some slowing in economic growth across the region—in part reflecting the Verizon strike (which has since been settled), as well as somewhat weaker economic fundamentals. As shown in the chart below, New York City continues to be the strongest engine of growth in the region, by far, though there too, we have seen some deceleration.

Continue reading "Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region" »

Posted by Blog Author at 9:15 AM in Macroecon, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

May 25, 2016

The Macro Effects of the Recent Swing in Financial Conditions



Credit conditions tightened considerably in the second half of 2015 and U.S. growth slowed. We estimate the extent to which tighter credit conditions last year were responsible for the slowdown using the FRBNY DSGE model. We find that growth would have slowed substantially more had the Federal Reserve not delayed liftoff in the federal funds rate.

Continue reading "The Macro Effects of the Recent Swing in Financial Conditions" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Markets, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (3)

May 23, 2016

The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—May 2016



The May 2016 forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model remains broadly in line with those of our two previous semiannual reports (see our May 2015 and December 2015 posts). In the past year, the headwinds that contributed to slower growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis finally began to abate. However, the widening of credit spreads associated with swings in financial markets in the second half of 2015 and the first few months of this year have had a negative impact on economic activity. Despite this setback, the model expects a rebound in growth in the second half of the year, so that the medium-term forecast remains, as in the December post, one of steady, gradual economic expansion. The model also continues to predict gradual progress in the inflation rate toward the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) long-run target of 2 percent.

Continue reading "The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—May 2016" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

May 19, 2016

Just Released: Presenting U.S. Economy in a Snapshot at Our Economic Press Briefing



LSE_Just Released: Presenting U.S. Economy in a Snapshot at Our Economic Press Briefing


Monitoring the economic and financial landscape is a difficult task. Part of the challenge stems from simply having access to data. Even if this requirement is met, there is the issue of identifying the key economic data releases and financial variables to focus on among the vast number of available series. It is also critical to be able to interpret movements in the data and to know their implications for the economy. Since last June, New York Fed research economists have been helping on this front, by producing U.S. Economy in a Snapshot, a series of charts and commentary capturing important economic and financial developments. At today’s Economic Press Briefing, we took reporters covering the Federal Reserve through the story of how and why the Snapshot is produced, and how it can be helpful in understanding the U.S. economy.

Continue reading "Just Released: Presenting U.S. Economy in a Snapshot at Our Economic Press Briefing" »

Posted by Blog Author at 10:30 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

May 02, 2016

Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity



Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity

After a period of stability, oil prices started to decline in mid-2015, and this downward trend continued into early 2016. As we noted in an earlier post, it is important to assess whether these price declines reflect demand shocks or supply shocks, since the two types of shocks have different implications for the U.S. economic outlook. In this post, we again use correlations of weekly oil price changes with a broad array of financial variables to quantify the drivers of oil price movements, finding that the decline since mid-2015 is due to a mix of weaker demand and increased supply. Given strong interest in the drivers of oil prices, the oil price decomposition is information we will be sharing in a new Oil Price Dynamics Report on our public website each Monday starting today. We conclude this post using another model that finds that the higher oil supply boosted U.S. economic activity in 2015, though this impact is expected to wear off in 2016.

Continue reading "Lower Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Activity" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Markets, International Economics, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

April 15, 2016

Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast—April 2016



Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) is hosting the spring meeting of its Economic Advisory Panel (EAP). As has become the custom at this meeting, the FRBNY staff is presenting its forecast for U.S. growth, inflation, and the unemployment rate. Following the presentation, members of the EAP, which consists of leading economists in academia and the private sector, are asked to critique the staff forecast. Such feedback helps the staff evaluate the assumptions and reasoning underlying its forecast as well as the forecast’s key risks. The feedback is also an important part of the forecasting process because it informs the staff’s discussions with New York Fed President William Dudley about economic conditions. In that same spirit, we are sharing a short summary of the staff forecast in this post; for more detail, see the FRBNY Staff Outlook Presentation from the EAP meeting on our website.

Continue reading "Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast—April 2016" »

Posted by Blog Author at 10:30 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)
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