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132 posts on "Macroecon"

November 28, 2016

At the N.Y. Fed: Convening on the Evolution of Work



LSE_Convening on the Evolution of Work

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently hosted “The Evolution of Work,” a conference that brought together thought leaders from academia, government, industry, labor, and the nonprofit sector to explore how the nature of work is evolving, including the expanding role of technology, shifts in employee work arrangements and employer-employee relationships, and the effects of these changes on workforce and community development strategies. The gathering was cosponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Freelancers Union.

Continue reading "At the N.Y. Fed: Convening on the Evolution of Work" »

Posted by Blog Author at 8:38 AM in Education, Labor Economics, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 21, 2016

The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—November 2016



This post presents the latest update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We introduced this model in a series of blog posts in September 2014 and have since published forecasts twice a year. Here we describe our current forecast and highlight how it has changed since May 2016.

Continue reading "The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—November 2016" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (2)

November 16, 2016

Escaping Unemployment Traps



LSE_2016_Escaping Unemployment Traps

Economic activity has remained subdued following the Great Recession. One interpretation of the listless recovery is that recessions inflict permanent damage on an economy’s productive capacity. For example, extended periods of high unemployment can lead to skill losses among workers, reducing human capital and lowering future output. This notion that temporary recessions have long-lasting consequences is often termed hysteresis. Another explanation for sluggish growth is the influential secular stagnation hypothesis, which attributes slow growth to long-term changes in the economy’s underlying structure. While these explanations are observationally similar, they have very different policy implications. In particular, if structural factors are responsible for slow growth, then there might be little monetary policy can do to reverse this trend. If instead hysteresis is to blame, then monetary policy may be able to reverse slowdowns in potential output, or even prevent them from occurring in the first place.

Continue reading "Escaping Unemployment Traps" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 14, 2016

Inflation and Japan’s Ever-Tightening Labor Market



LSE_Inflation_japan_tightening_labor_market_iStock_16873820_460x288

Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers tend to have lower bargaining power than prime-age males.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in International Economics, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (2)

September 09, 2016

Now on Your iPhone: The Economic Research Tracker



LSE_Now on Your iPhone: The Economic Research Tracker

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today announced the launch of its Economic Research Tracker app for the iPhone®. The app, which highlights the insights and analysis of New York Fed economists, was first introduced last year for the iPad®. Today’s launch makes the app even more accessible to readers.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 19, 2016

Historical Echoes: That’s Where the Celebrity Advertising Was, or the Gentleman Bank Robber



LSE_http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2016/08/historical-echoes-thats-where-the-celebrity-advertising-was-or-the-gentleman-bank-robber.html

In 1970, New Britain Bank and Trust (inactive as of 1984) ran a television advertisement that starred a real-life bank robber touting a safety feature of its new “face card.” (A History Channel video includes interesting preliminaries about how the journalists obtained the ad; the ad itself starts at 5:44.) Why would this bank be willing to create such an ad? Of course, neither this bank, nor any other bank, nor any Federal Reserve Bank would condone the act of robbing a bank. But this particular thief, the notorious Willie Sutton (1901-80), was different from typical bank robbers. Let’s consider why:

Continue reading "Historical Echoes: That’s Where the Celebrity Advertising Was, or the Gentleman Bank Robber" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Credit, Historical Echoes, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (1)

August 15, 2016

What Drives Forecaster Disagreement about Monetary Policy?



LSE_What Drives Forecaster Disagreement about Monetary Policy?

What can disagreement teach us about how private forecasters perceive the conduct of monetary policy? In a previous post, we showed that private forecasters disagree about both the short-term and the long-term evolution of key macroeconomic variables but that the shape of this disagreement differs across variables. In contrast to their views on other macroeconomic variables, private forecasters disagree substantially about the level of the federal funds rate that will prevail in the medium to long term but very little on the rate at shorter horizons. In this post, we explore the possible explanations for what drives forecasts of the federal funds rate, especially in the longer run.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Inflation, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (1)

August 03, 2016

The Reluctance of Firms to Interview the Long-Term Unemployed



LSE_The Reluctance of Firms to Interview the Long-Term Unemployed

Estimates from the Current Population Survey show that the probability of finding a job declines the longer one is unemployed. Is this due to a loss of skills from being unemployed, employer discrimination against the long-term unemployed, or are there characteristics of workers in this segment of the workforce that lower their probability of finding a job? Studies that send out fictitious resumes find that employers do consider the length of unemployment in deciding whom to interview. Our recent work examines how such employer screening based on unemployment duration ultimately affects job-finding rates and long-term unemployment.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Labor Economics, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

June 27, 2016

Hey, Economist! How Is the Research and Statistics Group Changing?



LSE_Hey, Economist! How Is the Research and Statistics Group Changing?

As Director of Research for the New York Fed for the past seven years, Jamie McAndrews has been responsible for the Bank’s financial and economic policy research, as well as the collection of data and statistics from financial institutions. On the eve of his retirement on June 30, Jamie shared his perspective on how the Research and Statistics Group has changed with Andrew Haughwout, a senior vice president in the Group.

Continue reading "Hey, Economist! How Is the Research and Statistics Group Changing?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (1)

June 24, 2016

Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region



LSE_Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region

The May Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEIs) for New Jersey, New York State, and New York City, released today, show some slowing in economic growth across the region—in part reflecting the Verizon strike (which has since been settled), as well as somewhat weaker economic fundamentals. As shown in the chart below, New York City continues to be the strongest engine of growth in the region, by far, though there too, we have seen some deceleration.

Continue reading "Just Released: May’s Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators Show Economic Growth Moderating across the Region" »

Posted by Blog Author at 9:15 AM in Macroecon, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)
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