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136 posts on "Macroecon"

February 17, 2017

The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—February 2017



This post presents the latest update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We introduced this model in a series of blog posts in September 2014 and published forecasts twice a year thereafter. With this post, we move to a quarterly release schedule, and highlight how our forecasts have changed since November 2016.

Continue reading "The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—February 2017" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Forecasting, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 13, 2017

How Resilient Is the U.S. Housing Market Now?



LSE_How Resilient Is the U.S. Housing Market Now?


Housing is by far the most important asset for most households, and, not coincidentally, housing debt dwarfs other household liabilities. The relationship between housing debt and housing values figures significantly in financial and macroeconomic stability, as events during the housing bust of 2006-12 clearly demonstrated. This week, Liberty Street Economics presents five posts touching on various aspects of housing, from the changing relationship between mortgage debt and housing equity to the future of homeownership. In today’s post, we provide estimates of housing equity and explore how vulnerable households are to declines in house prices, using methods introduced in our paper “Tracking and Stress Testing U.S. Household Leverage.”

Continue reading "How Resilient Is the U.S. Housing Market Now?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Institutions, Household Finance, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (1)

December 20, 2016

At the N.Y. Fed: Capital Flows, Policy Dilemmas, and the Future of Global Financial Integration



LSE_At the N.Y. Fed: Capital Flows, Policy Dilemmas, and the Future of Global Financial Integration

The New York Fed recently hosted the third biannual Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance, an event organized in conjunction with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve Board. Bringing together a diverse group of academics, policymakers, and market participants, the two-day conference (November 17-18) was aimed at promoting discussion of frontier research on empirical and theoretical issues in international finance, banking, and open-economy macroeconomics. Understanding the drivers and implications of international capital flows was a major area of focus, along with the policy challenges posed by global financial integration.

Continue reading "At the N.Y. Fed: Capital Flows, Policy Dilemmas, and the Future of Global Financial Integration" »

December 16, 2016

Just Released: Regional Business Surveys Point to Growth in Economic Activity



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The latest editions of the New York Fed’s two regional business surveys point to improvement in business conditions and widespread optimism about the near-term outlook. The December Business Leaders Survey of regional service firms, released today, shows service sector activity steadying after declining for a number of months, and the December Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released yesterday, indicates that manufacturing activity increased for the first time since the summer.

Continue reading "Just Released: Regional Business Surveys Point to Growth in Economic Activity" »

Posted by Blog Author at 8:45 AM in Macroecon, Regional Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 28, 2016

At the N.Y. Fed: Convening on the Evolution of Work



LSE_Convening on the Evolution of Work

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently hosted “The Evolution of Work,” a conference that brought together thought leaders from academia, government, industry, labor, and the nonprofit sector to explore how the nature of work is evolving, including the expanding role of technology, shifts in employee work arrangements and employer-employee relationships, and the effects of these changes on workforce and community development strategies. The gathering was cosponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Freelancers Union.

Continue reading "At the N.Y. Fed: Convening on the Evolution of Work" »

Posted by Blog Author at 8:38 AM in Education, Employment, Labor Economics, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 21, 2016

The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—November 2016



This post presents the latest update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We introduced this model in a series of blog posts in September 2014 and have since published forecasts twice a year. Here we describe our current forecast and highlight how it has changed since May 2016.

Continue reading "The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—November 2016" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in DSGE, Expectations, Forecasting, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (2)

November 16, 2016

Escaping Unemployment Traps



LSE_2016_Escaping Unemployment Traps

Economic activity has remained subdued following the Great Recession. One interpretation of the listless recovery is that recessions inflict permanent damage on an economy’s productive capacity. For example, extended periods of high unemployment can lead to skill losses among workers, reducing human capital and lowering future output. This notion that temporary recessions have long-lasting consequences is often termed hysteresis. Another explanation for sluggish growth is the influential secular stagnation hypothesis, which attributes slow growth to long-term changes in the economy’s underlying structure. While these explanations are observationally similar, they have very different policy implications. In particular, if structural factors are responsible for slow growth, then there might be little monetary policy can do to reverse this trend. If instead hysteresis is to blame, then monetary policy may be able to reverse slowdowns in potential output, or even prevent them from occurring in the first place.

Continue reading "Escaping Unemployment Traps" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Employment, Macroecon, Monetary Policy, Unemployment, Wages | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 14, 2016

Inflation and Japan’s Ever-Tightening Labor Market



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Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers tend to have lower bargaining power than prime-age males.

Continue reading "Inflation and Japan’s Ever-Tightening Labor Market" »

September 09, 2016

Now on Your iPhone: The Economic Research Tracker



LSE_Now on Your iPhone: The Economic Research Tracker

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today announced the launch of its Economic Research Tracker app for the iPhone®. The app, which highlights the insights and analysis of New York Fed economists, was first introduced last year for the iPad®. Today’s launch makes the app even more accessible to readers.

Continue reading "Now on Your iPhone: The Economic Research Tracker" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 19, 2016

Historical Echoes: That’s Where the Celebrity Advertising Was, or the Gentleman Bank Robber



LSE_http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2016/08/historical-echoes-thats-where-the-celebrity-advertising-was-or-the-gentleman-bank-robber.html

In 1970, New Britain Bank and Trust (inactive as of 1984) ran a television advertisement that starred a real-life bank robber touting a safety feature of its new “face card.” (A History Channel video includes interesting preliminaries about how the journalists obtained the ad; the ad itself starts at 5:44.) Why would this bank be willing to create such an ad? Of course, neither this bank, nor any other bank, nor any Federal Reserve Bank would condone the act of robbing a bank. But this particular thief, the notorious Willie Sutton (1901-80), was different from typical bank robbers. Let’s consider why:

Continue reading "Historical Echoes: That’s Where the Celebrity Advertising Was, or the Gentleman Bank Robber" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Credit, Historical Echoes, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (1)
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