Measuring Global Bank Complexity
Paraphrasing a famous Supreme Court opinion: “I know bank complexity when I see it.”
Risk Aversion, Global Asset Prices, and Fed Tightening Signals
The global sell-off last May of emerging market equities and currencies of countries with high interest rates (“carry-trade” currencies) has been attributed to changes in the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, since the sell-off took place immediately following Chairman Bernanke’s May 22 comments concerning the future of the Fed’s asset purchase programs.
Just Released: The Inflation Outlook in the Euro Zone . . . Survey Says
The European Central Bank (ECB) released its 2014:Q1 Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on February 13.
Comparing U.S. and Euro Area Unemployment Rates
Euro area growth has been stalled since 2010, mired in the sovereign debt crisis, while the United States has managed a slow but steady recovery following the Great Recession.
Yen and Yang: The Response of the Nikkei to the Yen
To what extent are Japanese equities driven by changes in the value of the yen?
Capital Flight inside the Euro Area: Cooling Off a Fire Sale
Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard Countries in the euro area periphery such as Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain saw large-scale capital flight in 2011 and the first half of 2012. While events unfolded much like a balance of payments crisis, the contraction in domestic credit was less severe than would ordinarily be caused by capital […]
Foreign Borrowing in the Euro Area Periphery: The End Is Near
Current account deficits in euro area periphery countries have now largely disappeared.
Capital Controls, Currency Wars, and International Cooperation
The debate over whether there’s a case for limiting capital flows has intensified recently—both in media and academic forums.
Japanese Inflation Expectations, Revisited
An important measure of success for monetary policy is a central bank’s ability to anchor inflation expectations; inflation expectations influence actual inflation and, hence, the achievement of a given inflation goal.
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