260 posts on "Macroeconomics"
June 6, 2012
Just Released: New York’s Latest Beige Book Report Signals Steady Growth
The New York Fed’s latest Beige Book report points to continued moderate growth in the regional economy and some reduction in cost pressures.
May 21, 2012
Just Released: The Euro‑zone Growth Outlook – Calm Before the Storm?
The European Central Bank (ECB) released the results of its 2012:Q2 Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on May 3.
May 14, 2012
The Great Moderation, Forecast Uncertainty, and the Great Recession
The Great Recession of 2007-09 was a dramatic macroeconomic event, marked by a severe contraction in economic activity and a significant fall in inflation.
May 11, 2012
Just Released: The New York Fed Staff Forecast—May 2012
We are presenting the New York Fed staff outlook for the U.S. economy to the New York Fed’s Economic Advisory Panel (EAP) at their meeting here today.
Posted at 10:30 am in Forecasting, Inflation, Macroeconomics, Monetary Policy, Unemployment | Permalink
April 16, 2012
Forecasting the Great Recession: DSGE vs. Blue Chip
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have been trashed, bashed, and abused during the Great Recession and after.
April 2, 2012
Conclusion: How Low Will the Unemployment Rate Go?
A major theme of the posts in our labor market series has been that the outflows from unemployment, either into employment or out of the labor force, have been the primary determinant of unemployment rate dynamics in long expansions.
March 30, 2012
Reconciling Contrasting Signals in the Labor Market: The Role of Participation
The contrasting movements in the employment-to-population ratio (E/P) and the unemployment rate recently have been striking and puzzling.
Posted at 7:04 am in Inequality, Labor Market, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (2)
March 29, 2012
Skills Mismatch, Construction Workers, and the Labor Market
Recessions and recoveries typically have been times of substantial reallocation in the economy and the labor market, and the current cycle does not appear to be an exception.
March 28, 2012
The Bathtub Model of Unemployment: The Importance of Labor Market Flow Dynamics
An alternative to Okun’s law to understand unemployment dynamics is to examine the evolution of the unemployment inflow and outflow rates.
March 27, 2012
Okun’s Law and Long Expansions
Economic forecasters frequently use a simple rule of thumb called Okun’s law to link their real GDP growth forecasts to their unemployment rate forecasts.
Posted at 7:00 am in Forecasting, Labor Market, Macroeconomics, Unemployment | Permalink | Comments (1)
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