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41 posts on "Housing"

June 02, 2016

Just Released: 2016 SCE Housing Survey Shows Modest Decline in Home Price Expectations



LSE_2016 SCE Housing Survey Shows Modest Decline in Home Price Expectations

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 2016 SCE Housing Survey indicates that home price growth expectations have declined somewhat relative to last year, but the majority of households still view housing as a good financial investment. Mortgage rate expectations have also declined since last year’s survey, and renters now perceive that it has become somewhat less difficult to get a mortgage if they wanted to buy a home.

Continue reading "Just Released: 2016 SCE Housing Survey Shows Modest Decline in Home Price Expectations" »

Posted by Blog Author at 11:00 AM in Housing | Permalink | Comments (0)

May 24, 2016

Just Released: Hints of Increased Hardship in America’s Oil-Producing Counties



LSE_Just Released: Hints of Increased Hardship in America’s Oil-Producing Counties

Today, the New York Fed released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2016. Overall debt saw one of its larger increases since deleveraging ended, while delinquency rates for the United States continued to improve and remain at very low levels. Although the overall picture of Americans’ liabilities has continued to improve since the financial crisis, we wondered what the variation looks like at local levels. One advantage of our Consumer Credit Panel (CCP), which is based on Equifax credit data, is that we can examine geographic variation in debt and delinquency rates. Here, we use the CCP to examine the borrowing and delinquency in oil-producing geographies in the United States, where the economic trends since the Great Recession have been very different from those in the rest of the country.

Continue reading "Just Released: Hints of Increased Hardship in America’s Oil-Producing Counties" »

Posted by Blog Author at 11:05 AM in Household Finance, Housing | Permalink | Comments (5)

April 06, 2016

Bank Regulation and Bank Complexity



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U.S. Bank Holding Companies (BHCs) currently control about 3,000 subsidiaries that provide community housing services—such as building low-income housing units, maintaining shelters, and providing housing services to the elderly and disabled. This aspect of U.S. BHC activity is intriguing because it departs from the traditional deposit-taking and loan-making operations typically associated with banks. But perhaps most importantly, the sheer number of these subsidiaries makes one think about the organizational complexity of U.S. BHCs. This is an issue that has generated much discussion in recent years. In this post we describe the emergence and growth of community housing subsidiaries and discuss to what extent they contribute to the complexity of their parent organizations.

Continue reading "Bank Regulation and Bank Complexity" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Institutions, Housing | Permalink | Comments (0)

April 01, 2016

Hey, Economist! What Did You Make of “The Big Short”?



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The Big Short has been making a big splash this year, racking up five Academy Award nominations and taking home the Oscar for best adapted screenplay. The movie provides a very entertaining way to gain an understanding about some of the underpinnings of the financial crisis, particularly through a few memorable cutaway scenes—such as when actress Margot Robbie explains mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from a bubble bath, chef Anthony Bourdain compares collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) to seafood stew, and singer Selena Gomez explains synthetic CDOs using the analogy of “side bets” made by people watching a casino blackjack game.

Continue reading "Hey, Economist! What Did You Make of “The Big Short”?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Markets, Hey, Economist!, Housing | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 24, 2016

The Graying of American Debt



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The U.S. population is aging and so are its debts. In this post, we use the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on Equifax credit data, to look at how debt is changing as baby boomers reach retirement age and millennials find their footing. We find that aggregate debt balances held by younger borrowers have declined modestly from 2003 to 2015, with a debt portfolio reallocation away from credit card, auto, and mortgage debt, toward student debt. Debt held by borrowers between the ages of 50 and 80, however, increased by roughly 60 percent over the same time period. This shifting of debt from younger to older borrowers is of obvious relevance to markets fueled by consumer credit. It is also relevant from a loan performance perspective as consumer debt payments are being made by older debtors than ever before.

Continue reading "The Graying of American Debt" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Household Finance, Housing | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 22, 2016

Whither Mortgages?



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Our most recent Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit showed that although total household debt has increased somewhat since 2012, that growth has been driven almost entirely by nonhousing debt—credit cards, auto loans and student loans. The largest category of household debt—mortgages—has been essentially flat since 2012, in spite of a substantial rise in housing prices over that period. In this post, we explore the sources of the sluggish growth in mortgage debt using our New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, which is based on Equifax credit data.

Continue reading "Whither Mortgages?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Household Finance, Housing | Permalink | Comments (2)

February 12, 2016

Just Released: Household Debt Grew Slowly in 2015 as Mortgage Balances Stayed Flat



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This morning, New York Fed President William Dudley spoke to the press about the growing resilience of the U.S. household sector. His speech was followed by a briefing by New York Fed economists on developments in household borrowing. Their presentation included a detailed decomposition on mortgage borrowing and payment trends, and some new research on how borrowing has evolved differently across age groups. Today, the New York Fed also released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the fourth quarter of 2015. The report, the press briefing , and the following analysis are all based on the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, which is itself based on consumer credit data from Equifax.

Continue reading "Just Released: Household Debt Grew Slowly in 2015 as Mortgage Balances Stayed Flat" »

Posted by Blog Author at 10:05 AM in Household Finance, Housing | Permalink | Comments (1)

February 08, 2016

Has MBS Market Liquidity Deteriorated?



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Mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the government-backed entities Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae, or so-called “agency MBS,” are the primary funding source for U.S. residential housing. A significant deterioration in the liquidity of the MBS market could lead investors to demand a premium for transacting in this important market, ultimately raising borrowing costs for U.S. homeowners. This post looks for evidence of changes in agency MBS market liquidity, complementing similar posts studying liquidity in U.S. Treasury and corporate bond markets.

Continue reading "Has MBS Market Liquidity Deteriorated?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:02 AM in Financial Markets, Housing | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 05, 2015

How Did Quantitative Easing Interact with Regional Inequality?



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Income, or wealth, inequality is not something that central bankers generally worry about when setting monetary policy, the goals of which are to maintain price stability and promote full employment. Nevertheless, it is important to understand whether and how monetary policy affects inequality, and this topic has recently generated quite a bit of discussion and academic research, with some arguing that the Federal Reserve’s expansionary policy of recent years has exacerbated inequality (see, for instance, here or here), while others reach the opposite conclusion (see here or here). This disagreement can be attributed in part to the different channels through which expansionary monetary policy can affect inequality: its effect on asset prices would tend to increase inequality, while its effect on labor incomes and employment would likely decrease inequality. In this post, I study one particular channel through which Fed policies may have disparate effects—namely, mortgage refinancing—and I focus on dispersion across locations in the United States.

Continue reading "How Did Quantitative Easing Interact with Regional Inequality?" »

November 04, 2015

Differences in Rent Inflation by Cost of Housing



Update (12.9.15): We revised the chart package linked to in the second paragraph of this post to correct a spreadsheet error. A new note also clarifies our methodology. Please see the addendum below.

LSE_2015_rent-inflation_peach_460_art

We know that different people experience different inflation rates because the bundle of goods and services that they consume is different from that of the "typical" household. This phenomenon is discussed in this publication from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and this article from the New York Fed. But did you know that there are substantial differences in inflation experience depending on the level of one's housing costs? In this post, which is based upon our updated staff report on “The Measurement of Rent Inflation,” we present evidence that price changes for rent, which comprises a large share of consumer spending, can vary considerably across households. In particular, we show that rent inflation is consistently higher for lower-cost housing units than it is for higher-cost units. Note that since owners' equivalent rent inflation is estimated from observed changes in rent of rental units, this finding applies to homeowners as well. While we cannot be certain about why this is the case, it appears to be at least partly related to how additional units are supplied to the housing market: in higher-price segments additional units primarily come from new construction, while most of the increase in lower-price segments comes from units that previously were occupied by higher-income households.

Continue reading "Differences in Rent Inflation by Cost of Housing" »

Posted by Blog Author at 2:30 PM in Housing, Macroecon | Permalink | Comments (2)
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