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110 posts on "Monetary Policy"

November 21, 2016

The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—November 2016



This post presents the latest update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We introduced this model in a series of blog posts in September 2014 and have since published forecasts twice a year. Here we describe our current forecast and highlight how it has changed since May 2016.

Continue reading "The FRBNY DSGE Model Forecast—November 2016" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (2)

November 18, 2016

Just Released: Press Briefing on the Survey of Consumer Expectations



LSE_Just Released: Press Briefing on the Survey of Consumer Expectations

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) collects information on household heads’ economic expectations and behavior. In particular, the survey covers respondents’ views on how inflation, spending, credit access, and the housing and labor markets will evolve over time. The SCE yields important insights that inform our monetary policy decisions. This morning, President Dudley joined New York Fed economists to brief the press on the design of the SCE and the latest releases of survey results. President Dudley introduced the briefing by speaking about the benefits of measuring consumers’ expectations.

Continue reading "Just Released: Press Briefing on the Survey of Consumer Expectations" »

November 16, 2016

Escaping Unemployment Traps



LSE_2016_Escaping Unemployment Traps

Economic activity has remained subdued following the Great Recession. One interpretation of the listless recovery is that recessions inflict permanent damage on an economy’s productive capacity. For example, extended periods of high unemployment can lead to skill losses among workers, reducing human capital and lowering future output. This notion that temporary recessions have long-lasting consequences is often termed hysteresis. Another explanation for sluggish growth is the influential secular stagnation hypothesis, which attributes slow growth to long-term changes in the economy’s underlying structure. While these explanations are observationally similar, they have very different policy implications. In particular, if structural factors are responsible for slow growth, then there might be little monetary policy can do to reverse this trend. If instead hysteresis is to blame, then monetary policy may be able to reverse slowdowns in potential output, or even prevent them from occurring in the first place.

Continue reading "Escaping Unemployment Traps" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

November 14, 2016

Inflation and Japan’s Ever-Tightening Labor Market



LSE_Inflation_japan_tightening_labor_market_iStock_16873820_460x288

Japan offers a preview of future U.S. demographic trends, having already seen a large increase in the population over 65. So, how has the Japanese economy dealt with this change? A look at the data shows that women of all ages have been pulled into the labor force and that more people are working longer. This transformation of the work force has not been enough to prevent a very tight labor market in a slowly growing economy, and it may help explain why inflation remains minimal. Namely, wages are not responding as much as they might to the tight labor market because women and older workers tend to have lower bargaining power than prime-age males.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in International Economics, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (2)

August 15, 2016

What Drives Forecaster Disagreement about Monetary Policy?



LSE_What Drives Forecaster Disagreement about Monetary Policy?

What can disagreement teach us about how private forecasters perceive the conduct of monetary policy? In a previous post, we showed that private forecasters disagree about both the short-term and the long-term evolution of key macroeconomic variables but that the shape of this disagreement differs across variables. In contrast to their views on other macroeconomic variables, private forecasters disagree substantially about the level of the federal funds rate that will prevail in the medium to long term but very little on the rate at shorter horizons. In this post, we explore the possible explanations for what drives forecasts of the federal funds rate, especially in the longer run.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Inflation, Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (1)

July 15, 2016

Implementing Monetary Policy Post-Crisis: What Do We Need to Know?



Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and the New York Fed co-sponsored a recent workshop to discuss important issues related to monetary policy implementation. The May 4 event, held at Columbia, supports the extended effort that the Federal Reserve has undertaken to evaluate potential long-run monetary policy implementation frameworks, which was announced at a Federal Open Market Committee meeting last July.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

June 29, 2016

Monetary Policy Transmission before and after the Crisis



LSE_Monetary Policy Transmission before and after the Crisis

The Federal Open Market Committee implements monetary policy by raising or lowering its target for the federal funds rate, the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. Because the Federal Reserve has no direct control over most interest rates, it relies on arbitrage in money markets for the change in the fed funds rate to be transmitted to other short-term rates, thus causing all short-term rates to move in tandem. This transmission to other rates is an important first step for the Fed’s actions to influence the real economy. In this post, we describe the major developments that have affected monetary policy transmission since the recent financial crisis. We conclude that while arbitrage may have been impeded at the beginning of the crisis, it currently remains effective in transmitting changes in monetary policy via the money markets.

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Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Financial Markets, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (0)

June 27, 2016

Hey, Economist! How Is the Research and Statistics Group Changing?



LSE_Hey, Economist! How Is the Research and Statistics Group Changing?

As Director of Research for the New York Fed for the past seven years, Jamie McAndrews has been responsible for the Bank’s financial and economic policy research, as well as the collection of data and statistics from financial institutions. On the eve of his retirement on June 30, Jamie shared his perspective on how the Research and Statistics Group has changed with Andrew Haughwout, a senior vice president in the Group.

Continue reading "Hey, Economist! How Is the Research and Statistics Group Changing?" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Macroecon, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (1)

June 22, 2016

The Rapidly Changing Nature of Japan’s Public Debt



LSE_The Rapidly Changing Nature of Japan’s Public Debt

Japan’s general government debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest of advanced economies, due in part to increased spending on social services for an aging population and a level of nominal GDP that has not increased for two decades. The interest rate payments from taxpayers on this debt are moderated by income earned on government assets and by low interest rates. One might think that the Bank of Japan’s purchases of government bonds would further ease the burden on taxpayers, with interest payments to the Bank of Japan on its bond holdings rebated back to the government. Merging the balance sheets of the government and the Bank, however, shows that the asset purchase program alters the composition of public debt, with reserves in the banking system replacing government bonds, but not the amount of the debt taxpayers must pay interest on.

Continue reading "The Rapidly Changing Nature of Japan’s Public Debt" »

Posted by Blog Author at 7:00 AM in Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy | Permalink | Comments (6)

June 03, 2016

At the N.Y. Fed: The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?



LSE_At the N.Y. Fed: The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?

On April 18, 2016, the New York Fed hosted a conference on current and future policy directions for the linked economies of Europe and the United States. "The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?"—organized jointly with the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the European Commission—brought together U.S. and Europe-based policymakers, regulators, and academics to discuss a series of important issues: Are the economies of the euro area and the United States on a convergent or divergent path? Are financial regulatory reforms making the banking and financial structures more similar? Will this imply a convergence in macroprudential policies? Which instruments do the United States and the euro area have at their disposal to raise investment, spur productivity, and avoid secular stagnation? In this post, we summarize the principal themes and findings of the conference discussion.

Continue reading "At the N.Y. Fed: The Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence?" »

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